Big Tech, Little Tech, Old Tech, New Tech: Navigating a World in Flux
By Nirwan Tajik
The tech world has a penchant for reinvention.
Every few years, new acronyms dominate boardrooms, Silicon Valley pitches, and Davos panels. Yet, as we sit amidst a storm of political recalibration and macroeconomic uncertainty, the dynamics between the four big categories—namely Big Tech, Little Tech, Old Tech, and New Tech—are shifting in ways even the savviest futurist might struggle to predict. And they each face their own challenges:
- Big Tech must accept that its golden age of unchecked expansion is over and focus on fostering partnerships, especially in regions where regulatory scrutiny is rising. Building trust—not just with regulators but also with users and smaller players—will be key to maintaining influence.
- Little Tech should embrace resilience and adaptability, learning from past downturns and strategically positioning itself where capital, regulatory environments, and partnerships offer the best runway for sustainable growth.
- Old Tech, often underestimated, has the chance to play kingmaker—leveraging its enterprise relationships, compliance expertise, and infrastructure to become an indispensable partner for both startups and governments navigating digital sovereignty concerns.
- New Tech must remain ambitious but pragmatic, understanding that revolutionary ideas alone won’t be enough; the ability to commercialise, navigate political realities, and scale responsibly will determine which emerging technologies shape the future.
Big Tech: giants with growing targets on their backs
Big Tech, after achieving market dominance and then maintaining it through relentless acquisitions, has found itself in an unfamiliar role in recent years: defending its empires. The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency introduces a potentially significant twist. While the previous administration had ramped up antitrust scrutiny on giants like Google, Amazon, and Apple, Big Tech hoped that Trump would reverse course in his second term, giving them unchecked ability to consolidate markets. So far, the picture has been mixed. Early executive orders suggest a shift toward deregulation in areas such as AI and crypto, promising Big Tech an opportunity to expand without the overhang of legal battles. However, the administration has signaled that it will continue antitrust cases against Microsoft and Google.
In the EU, however, regulatory pressure shows no signs of abating. The Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA) are forcing Big Tech to adopt significant operational changes, including greater transparency and fairer market practices. While these measures introduce complexities, they also aim to create a more level playing field for smaller European players, fostering competition and consumer trust. With the US easing its stance, a new transatlantic divergence emerges: American Big Tech can innovate and exploit freely at home while facing growing compliance challenges for fair practices abroad. Similarly, in other regions, Big Tech faces significant regulatory hurdles. For instance, in August 2024, Brazil's Supreme Court ordered the suspension of the social media platform X due to non-compliance with local laws, leading to a nationwide block until the platform adhered to judicial mandates.
The recent AI Action Summit in Paris highlighted another critical shift. European leaders, wary of the dominance of US and Chinese AI firms, emphasised the need for regulatory oversight and ethical AI development. This stands in contrast to the US, where AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic continue their rapid commercialisation with minimal constraints. The EU’s emphasis on "trustworthy AI"—while admirable—positions Europe as a global leader in ethical AI standards. However, there is a growing debate on whether strict compliance measures risk hampering innovation by creating regulatory uncertainty for startups and investors. This tension could inadvertently slow down domestic innovation, further deepening the transatlantic AI gap.
For venture capital, this regulatory divergence could influence where funds flow. In the US, the freedom for Big Tech to experiment and scale may create acquisition opportunities for VCs looking to exit their investments. In Europe, meanwhile, the emphasis on regulation and antitrust creates both obstacles and opportunities for startups. On one hand, compliance requirements could limit rapid scalability and discourage deep integration with Big Tech. On the other, a well-regulated and non-monopolistic digital economy may incentivise investments in European champions that align with these rules, offering a long-term strategic advantage.
Little Tech: David in a world of Goliaths
At the other end of the spectrum, Little Tech—startups and early-stage innovators—faces a harsher reality. Cheap money is no longer abundant, and VCs have traded their "growth at all costs" mantra for "profitability, please."
Does that put them at a disadvantage to the previous wave of startups that rushed through their early stages awash with Zero Interest Period money and well-spirited VCs, before 2020 and 2022 brought an abrupt stop to that?
The deregulatory shift in the US may provide a silver lining for Little Tech. Startups aligned with Big Tech ecosystems—whether in AI, cloud, or fintech—could see increased funding as larger firms regain the freedom to partner, acquire, or invest. Conversely, in Europe, the tightening antitrust grip could make mergers between startups and established players more cumbersome, narrowing opportunities for Little Tech to piggyback on Big Tech’s scale.
Rather than expanding across markets, Little Tech must increasingly adapt to the environments they find themselves in—whether in the US, Europe, or China—developing localised competitive advantages. As funding, regulatory, and geopolitical barriers rise, expanding across regions is becoming more difficult, forcing many startups to focus on becoming dominant regional players rather than aspiring to global scale (the gold standard of the previous tech cycle).
History shows that startups born in adversity often challenge the very empires that seemed untouchable—just ask Yahoo how it feels about Google, or Nokia how it remembers Apple. And yet Yahoo thrives in an area where it has a hardcore user base—Yahoo Finance.
Old Tech: the tortoise of the digital economy
Then there’s Old Tech—the IBMs, Oracles, and SAPs of the world—steadily trudging along. For years, they’ve been the punchline of tech jokes, the uninspiring vendors with clunky software and declining relevance. Yet, in times of uncertainty, Old Tech has a knack for turning into the tortoise that can win the tech race by tenacity and consistency.
Trump’s deregulatory agenda, combined with his emphasis on "America First" manufacturing and defence, could position Old Tech for a quiet resurgence. With fewer antitrust constraints and potential government incentives for US-based technology providers, Old Tech may find itself re-entering the conversation as a trusted, stable partner for enterprise and government clients. Their deep relationships with federal agencies, already a hallmark of their business, could flourish under policies prioritising domestic tech investment.
At the Munich Security Conference, JD Vance offered a stark warning about America’s shifting geopolitical priorities. His remarks—emphasising a pivot away from European security concerns toward domestic economic growth—underscore a broader trend of US isolationism. If this rhetoric translates into policy, Old Tech in Europe may find itself even more disconnected from US capital markets and partnerships, forcing a reliance on fragmented home markets (despite ever-present political promises of a “closer union”).
Europe, however, tells a different story for Old Tech on both sides of the Atlantic. Old Tech must continue to navigate a maze of compliance obligations under the DMA and DSA. While these firms are well-equipped to handle such regulations, the added costs of compliance could weigh on their margins and slow product innovation—yet raise barriers to new entrants.
For startups, scaleups, and their backers, Old Tech offers an intriguing opportunity: stability in an otherwise unpredictable landscape. Partnering with or selling to Old Tech firms could provide startups with reliable exit options, especially in Europe where compliance complexity might deter Big Tech acquisitions. Old Tech’s role as a stabilising force for startups navigating regulatory risks cannot be overstated. B2B enterprise software might become en vogue again—if it was ever out of favour. And those Old Tech firms that continue to struggle may find their customer bases are increasingly becoming attractive targets for fast-moving scaleups.
New Tech: the unpredictable disruptors
And finally, there’s New Tech—the emergent categories like AI, blockchain, quantum computing, and biotech that promise to redefine what "technology" even means. New Tech is where the wild cards lie. These are companies like OpenAI and Mistral, that have conquered the venture Olymp suddenly and forcefully.
AI, in particular, has ascended to the pantheon of buzzwords, yet its potential is undeniable. The US policies favouring domestic AI development could catalyse significant funding and innovation, while Europe, with its cautious regulatory framework, risks falling behind in the AI arms race. Blockchain, meanwhile, is caught in a crossfire: deregulation in the US may revive investor confidence, but Europe’s stringent oversight could curb its broader institutional adoption.
The US has also doubled down on AI infrastructure with its "Stargate" initiative—an ambitious collaboration between leading tech firms, defence agencies, and research institutions aimed at securing American dominance in AI and quantum computing. With plans scaling up to $500 billion over the next four years, Stargate benefits from access to unparalleled datasets, compute power, and regulatory leniency, accelerating the next wave of AI-driven advancements while raising concerns about a widening gap between the US and its allies.
Meanwhile, the Paris AI Action Summit saw the announcement of several infrastructure initiatives, including a European AI Supercomputing Network designed to support homegrown AI innovation. With a focus on ethical AI and sovereign cloud computing, these efforts signal Europe's intent to remain competitive while ensuring regulatory compliance. The European initiatives are bolstered by approximately €200 billion in funding commitments over the next five years, with significant contributions from both European governments and private entities. Notably, the United Arab Emirates has pledged to build a 1GW AI data centre in France, highlighting Europe's ability to attract substantial international capital to fuel its AI ambitions.
In the realm of New Tech, China's DeepSeek has made headlines with its AI model, DeepSeek-R1, which rivals leading models from US and European leaders. Remarkably, DeepSeek achieved this at a fraction of the cost, utilising less-powerful hardware yet delivering competitive performance. The sudden “appearance” of DeepSeek shocked many. This development underscores China's strategic focus on AI and its potential to leapfrog traditional tech powerhouses.
However, Chinese AI models, including DeepSeek, often reflect ideological influence rather than maintaining a purely neutral or objective stance. Analysts have noted that DeepSeek’s outputs align with official Chinese narratives, raising concerns about the extent to which AI models trained within China can operate with intellectual independence. This ideological colouring could limit their adoption outside of China while reinforcing Beijing’s efforts to use AI as a tool for shaping digital discourse. But does Chinese New Tech really need Western markets to scale?
Where are they going from here? A balancing act
As we navigate these turbulent waters, the balance of power between Big Tech, Little Tech, Old Tech, and New Tech remains dynamic.
Big Tech will continue to face the twin pressures of regulation and competition—but now with a transatlantic divide. Little Tech must carefully choose its alliances and geographies. Old Tech will soldier on, proving that resilience sometimes trumps revolution. And New Tech will tantalise us with visions of a future we can barely imagine (or even bear).
But in this shifting landscape, alliances are emerging that could reshape the balance entirely. Projects like the above-mentioned Stargate—a collaboration between established giants in Big Tech and Old Tech—hint at an (unholy) alliance to dominate the future of AI. By pooling resources, data, and infrastructure, these players may create a fortress around New Tech breakthroughs, ensuring they remain under the purview of incumbents while keeping Little Tech innovators on the periphery. Stargate symbolises a potential consolidation of power that could stifle competition in the AI ecosystem, raising questions about whether the next generation of innovation will be fostered or fenced off.
The winners won’t be those who simply react to change, but those who anticipate and use it as a competitive advantage.